S2F Au, Ag, BTC – TODO plot historical Au, Ag, Bitcoin stock to flow data
Dr. Saifedean Ammous’s “The Bitcoin Standard”
Plan B interview: https://stephanlivera.com/episode/122/
Drunk man walking dog: Bitcoin is drunk staggering randomly all over the place, dog is wandering all over, don’t know where either are going to be exactly, but you know they’ll be together, as they’re attached by a leash.
Third gen S2F model is based exclusively on pre-2012 data.
Bitcoin may behave as a votlin good: demand rises as price increases.
Pricing bitcoin in Watts?! ~3:00
S2F for Litecoin doesn’t work, for the same reason it’s not applicable to other fiat currencies: they are not scarce. Saifedean Ammous: shitcoins are not scarce. This further undermines a common misconception that Litecoin could be silver to Bitcoin’s gold.
Basically S2F model is based upon the reasonable presumption that BTC price is directly linked to selling pressure from miners.
Over the next year and a half, it will be interesting to see if the BTC price increases another order of magnitude, as the S2F model predicts. If this ends up being the case, it may be reasonable to assume the model will hold for future halvings as well.
If each halving roughly coincides with order of magnitude increases in BTC hodl positions, Bitcoin will continue to redistribute wealth towards holders. In essence, Bitcoin has historically acted as the first large scale deployment of a universal basic income (UBI).
When I look at the history of BTC–particularly through the lens of S2F–I see an escalator out of poverty into a more equitable Earth.